Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory

"Don't fight the Fed." Is that the answer. Let's look at some charts.  SP500 (daily) with multiple moving averages...Dave Landry style. Stocks fell sharply with "daylight" between price and t...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-end-of-beginning.html

The Dow Industrials recently made new highs.  Yet, the Dow Transports aren't playing in the same sandbox.  Never intended as investment advice. 

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2019/12/dow-theory.html

"The game isn't supposed to be easy" and Howard Marks' new book, Mastering the Market Cycle, doesn't claim it is. What the book does is lay out the forces that drive prices higher (or lower) an...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-acronym-of-core-values.html

There's no joy in markets recently.  SPY, weekly...price peaked at about 292 - Defining series of lower highs and lower lows - Declining multiple moving averages - RSI14 getting toward pote...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/12/falling-knives.html

"A man distracted is a man defeated." - David Mamet, in Redbelt Our job hasn't changed. Control risk. See the market as it is. Do what it does.  The 'quick look' shows key elements above ...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/09/if-nothing-is-wrong-is-everything-ok.html

Michael Useem's The Leadership Moment asks four questions: What went well? What went poorly? What can we do better?  What enduring lessons emerge? SPY continues to do nothing wrong. Today, ...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/07/a-tale-of-two-markets-today-as-small.html

Inadequate preparation is never an excuse. Ultimately, we decide based on our process, the blend of fundamentals, technicals, psychology, and asset allocation.  The SPY PnF chart shows pri...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/06/ennui-is-not-excuse.html

Posts have been few and far between. Why?  SPY weekly chart with Ciovacco moving averages. We seek tools that will bulletproof our portfolios. Valuation doesn't provide short-term answers....

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/05/why-ask-why-beware-of-this-tool.html

Markets haven't been as much negative as indifferent.  Look at a few Ciovacco weekly charts...with 3 and 5 period averages, examining the price structure.  SPY  price > MA3 > MA5 (bullish...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/05/mixed-signals.html

"It's not supposed to be easy."  SPY weekly, Ciovacco Chart. Price leading MA3 leading MA5, but with a reversal candle. Caution but hardly proven reversal.  VIX only mildly below MA10 ...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/04/its-not-supposed-to-be-easy.html

Will there be a 'threshold' interest rate where markets relent?  The "Ciovacco Chart" showed a steady ten-year rate rally eclipsing 2.5 percent and are consolidating between 2.75 and 2.9 p...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/04/losing-interest.html

Frustrating? It's about the MA200...or not. Time will tell.  Good trading and great risk management to all. Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice. 

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/04/testing.html

It's not our job to identify what causes markets to fluctuate. SPY remains above the 200 day average (top, right), below the declining MA50 and 20, and below the declining MA5 (bottom, right)....

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/03/volatility-watch.html

Kentucky fans go home sad after the Wildcats (K-State) defeated their Kentucky Wildcats in the Year of the Underdog. FSU and LUC also wore the glass slippers into the Elite Eight.  With trader...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/03/black-and-blue-are-colors-of-day.html

With the Federal Reserve announcing policy tomorrow, markets wait.  SPY lower highs and lower lows below the declining MA5 (right)...unfavorable  XLE early rally but still below key avera...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/03/dead-ahead-of-fed.html

Nothing matters until it does. The Ciovacco Chart shows price leading the MA3 which leads the MA5...a bullish configuration. XLE bullishly moved above the EMA10 (black line, bottom left...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/03/recalibrating.html

We do what the market does. It isn't our job to know why, just to do what it does.  So much for the NR7 column. SPY...lower highs and lower lows with price below the declining MA5 (right)....

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/03/cohn-baby-cohn.html

The market has to do this or do that. Says who?  Plenty of items above the MA200 and not so many at extremes. There's market chatter about retesting the lows and Todd Harrison's worldly wisdo...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/02/silly-season.html

The 'correction' sits comfortably in the rearview mirror...or does it?  The 'highlight' du jour is the amazing cornucopia of NR7 (narrowest range of 7 sessions) setups which almost fills the...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/02/levels.html

Tom DeMark has a saying, "you can't do size at highs." Recent history affirms that, but that denies the extended rise.  We don't know whether the Berraism, "it ain't over 'til it's over" appli...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/02/market-sayings-only-matter-when-executed.html

Nobody knows where the next move is...gradual recovery or retracement to VWAP, downsloping MA, or the Gann Square of 9 retracement (humor me).  SPY...retraces to the .382 mark on the 30 minut...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/02/retracement.html

Control what you can. We can't control volatility, news, manipulation, interest rates. We control our attitude, choices, and effort (including preparation).  I'm not going to tell you my portf...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/02/control-what-you-can-control.html

Friday's action changed field position.  The 'Ciovacco Chart' isn't totally reversed as MA3 (weekly) still exceeds MA5.  A lot of red on the daily column Friday... SPY moved below ...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/02/yellow-caution-flag-comes-out.html

Ignore the noise.  Current VIX futures term structure unperturbed.  Price above VWAP off mini-lows. Good trading and great risk management to all. Educational use only. Ne...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/01/bulls-unmoved-by-todays-action.html

The wind doesn't blow the same direction with the same velocity every day. How profound! The markets won't either, but they pay us to put up our sail in alignment.  The trade universe show ...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2018/01/wind-speed-and-direction.html