at Emory University; and before that, a pollster with firms in Washington, DC, and California. My academic research was largely focused on improving the measurement of public opinion, especially...
Looking at this issue from 18 months forward, I don't think there have been strategic solutions provided to the presumed political polling inaccuracies of GE 2016. There have been ongoing develop...
https://votamatic.org/the-forecasts-were-wrong-trump-won-what-happened/#comment-164393
phenomenon known as “herding.” Toward the top of a marketing campaign, pollsters’ outcomes often fall artificially in line with one another as the standard knowledge types concerning the r...
https://votamatic.org/pollsters-may-be-herding/#comment-161236
Forget the Polls Trump WON BIG and he will WIN BIG again in 2020
https://votamatic.org/how-bad-is-it-for-donald-trump-lets-do-the-math/#comment-161202
Your own formula says that it is based on the following factors: GDP growth Incumbent approval rating Whether or not the incumbent has been in office for two terms. Obama was in office for two te...
https://votamatic.org/the-forecasts-were-wrong-trump-won-what-happened/#comment-161018
In reply to Peter. I think Occam's razor applies here. It is much simpler to assume that a med...
https://votamatic.org/the-forecasts-were-wrong-trump-won-what-happened/#comment-153607
Thank you for the post-mortem. I am afraid I don't buy it. The fact there were true undecideds, who 'broke late' so overwhemingly to become Trump supporters, is a very unlikely statistical event....
https://votamatic.org/the-forecasts-were-wrong-trump-won-what-happened/#comment-153096
I'm amazed that you don't even entertain the idea of partisan bias among the pollsters. I saw one of the data guys from the Trump campaign, Brad Parscale, clearly explain how he foresaw the upcom...
https://votamatic.org/the-forecasts-were-wrong-trump-won-what-happened/#comment-152692
Drew Your dkos link shows Hillary 313 / 225. Time to update it?
https://votamatic.org/final-2016-presidential-forecast-clinton-323-trump-215/#comment-152271
But Drew, your Daily Kos model says the race for the White House won't be close (91% probability we'll get a "First Man") and what fun is that? We'd all (according to the media apparently) prefer...
https://votamatic.org/looking-for-presidential-election-forecasts/#comment-152182