The Baseline Scenario

By James As I wrote a couple of years ago, I don’t post here anymore. I just have a couple of updates for people who subscribe and may be interested in my work.

https://baselinescenario.com/2023/05/09/a-few-quick-announcements/

The Honorable Janet L. Yellen U.S. Department of Treasury 1500 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20220                                            �...

https://baselinescenario.com/2022/10/11/letter-to-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-in-support-of-a-price-cap-on-russian-oil-exports/

By Simon Johnson, Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship, MIT Sloan School of Management The plan is based on sound economic and fiscal assumptions and allows for the implementation of pol...

https://baselinescenario.com/2022/10/05/assessment-stacey-abrams-budget-plan/

March 3, 2022: By Oleg Ustenko, economic advisor to the president of Ukraine, and Simon Johnson, MIT. Contact: sjohnson@mit.edu. This post is taken from a one page memo, currently circulating. Sa...

https://baselinescenario.com/2022/03/03/imposing-sanctions-on-russian-energy-exports/

By James Kwak I’ve been asked if you can sign up for email notifications when I write stories on Medium. Apparently you can, but the option is a bit buried. (One of the nice things about Medium...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/12/04/quick-housekeeping-note/

By James Kwak I’ve decided not to post on The Baseline Scenario anymore. I’ve thought about this on and off during the several years that the site has been mostly dormant, but I never pulled ...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/12/03/moving-on/

Why are Democrats throwing away a shot at writing their own budget bill in January?

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/12/01/leverage/

By James Kwak Today, the Washington Post’s Outlook section published my article on the future of the American economy in the wake of the pandemic. They invited me to write it because of my earl...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/07/12/the-covid-19-economy-what-can-we-do/

By James Kwak I think it’s highly likely that the dust will clear eventually and that our economy will come back to life at some point in the next two or three years. I know there are certain d...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/03/29/covid-19-our-future-economy/

By James Kwak By some measures, in the short term, COVID-19 will surely reduce inequality of wealth, and probably inequality of income as well. As a purely mechanical matter, the rich have a lot ...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/03/26/covid-19-inequality/

By James Kwak “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” —Adam Smith, The Wealth of N...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-butcher-the-brewer-and-the-baker/

By James Kwak It seems that social distancing is the primary strategy for slowing the propagation rate of COVID-19. That and widespread testing are the key tools for containing an outbreak, for r...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-the-statistics-of-social-distancing/

By James Kwak The airline industry is trying to hold up the federal government for $29 billion in grants and another $29 billion in loans. They threaten that if they don’t get the grants they w...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/03/22/covid-19-not-one-penny/

By James Kwak Our business and household sectors are losing lots of money every day, and will continue to lose money for the foreseeable future. People no longer spend money at restaurants. Resta...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/03/21/covid-19-who-bears-the-losses/

By James Kwak PPE, as we now know, stands for Personal Protective Equipment, like face masks and gloves. Right now there isn’t enough of it, and that’s one of the constraints on being able to...

https://baselinescenario.com/2020/03/20/thoughts-about-covid-19-ppe/