Our presidential forecast, which launched today, is not the first election forecast that FiveThirtyEight has published since 2016. There was our midterms forecast in 2018, which was pretty accura...
Graphics by Jasmine Mithani FiveThirtyEight’s general election polling averages debuted last week, showing that former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds a big ...
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week Hard as it may be to believe, Election Day is now less than five months away. And at this point, former Vice President Joe...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-latest-swing-state-polls-look-good-for-biden/
We are now about six months from the general election, and while the national party conventions won’t make it official until August, President Trump will face former Vice President Joe Biden in...
We know we’ve told you that early general election polls are pretty meaningless in predicting who will win the presidency at this point in the election cycle, more than a year in advance, but w...
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week The 2018 election saw some remarkable performances by Democrats — including, prominently, in the red state of Texas, where ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-florida-is-not-redder-than-texas/
Starting when the first polling places close at 6 p.m. Eastern, election night will be a whirlwind of tweets, numbers, emotions, speeches, pizza and live blogs. To see when polls close in each st...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/
The primary season is here, the first Republican debates are in the books, and the presidential candidates are trying to persuade voters to support them. Persuasion happens a lot in primaries, bu...
FiveThirtyEight will be covering the U.K. general election results live Thursday night, with projections updated as soon as each result comes in. But what if you’re away from your computer, for...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-expect-on-election-night-in-the-uk/
We’ve been gearing up for weeks to cover the vote in Great Britain and Northern Ireland and now the election is here. Below, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, Mona Chalabi and Jody Avirgan disc...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/video-uk-general-election-nate-silver-predictions/
The U.K. parliamentary elections are less than a month away. Maybe you’re a polling junkie when it comes to U.S. elections, and you’re starting to poke around U.K. polls? Maybe you’re a cas...
What do political campaigning and a famous math problem have in common? Plenty — if you’re deciding where to send your party leader out campaigning. Between now and May 7, the political parti...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-the-best-campaign-route-in-the-2015-uk-general-election/
To mark the beginning of the official campaign period in advance of the May 7 election (now 38 days away), FiveThirtyEight is launching United Kingdom general election predictions, developed by m...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-uk-election-forecasting-model-works/
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s U.K. election coverage. It’s 59 days until the vote on May 7 and we’re just a few short weeks away from the start of the short campaign. We thought we’d take ...
North Carolina is a swing state that has relatively few swing voters. Rhode Island is not a swing state, but it has quite a lot of swing voters. Are you confused yet? The concept I’m getting at...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/
We are beginning to see more national surveys now, including this week’s New York Times/CBS News poll, which show Mitt Romney with a slight lead over President Obama in the general election mat...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-30000-foot-view-on-the-presidential-race/
In this edition: a special criticism-laden, all-readers’ comments edition of reactions. Reactions In the lull between the resolution of the Republican primary and the beginning of the general e...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/reads-and-reactions-reader-comment-edition/