Shortly before the 2016 presidential primaries began, the influential conservative outlet the National Review devoted an entire edition of its biweekly magazine to making the ideological case “...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-polls-very-conservative-voters-2016-2024/
In 2016, when then-Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio was asked a question about Donald Trump’s complaints of a rigged election in Iowa, the Florida senator went to great lengths to ...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2024-republican-reaction-trump-indictment/
In the closing days of the 2018 midterms campaign, with the economy on a historic run, President Trump tried to focus Americans’ attention on a caravan of Central American migrants heading towa...
Wednesday brings the fifth Democratic primary debate, which means you’ll be hearing a lot about potential “game changing moments” and whatever else Beltway-types are obsessing over. The onl...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-the-democratic-debates-moved-the-polls-at-all/
There are now fewer than 11 weeks left until the Iowa caucuses, and if you were to just look at the top line numbers in the polls, it would seem like most Democratic voters have picked a candidat...
While President Trump didn’t totally upend the “the party decides” theory that endorsements from political leaders can help a candidate win his or her party’s presidential nomination (it ...
If you hear the phrase “delegate math” and remember 2016, you might have some nightmares. That’s because Republicans, who briefly kinda sorta looked like they might have a contested convent...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-percent-is-not-a-magic-number-for-primary-delegates/
Most presidential campaigns spend their time and money appealing to people who vote regularly in elections. Not Donald Trump. According to a Trump campaign memo obtained by FiveThirtyEight, the c...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-campaign-memo-unlikely-voters/
Since his presidential campaign started, Donald Trump has sent thousands of tweets into the world. They’ve consumed news cycles, antagonized opponents and riled up supporters. They’ve also be...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-worlds-favorite-donald-trump-tweets/
One year ago today, Donald Trump descended the escalator of Trump Tower in New York to announce his candidacy for the presidency of the United States. Trump’s rise from a reality star and busin...
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle.
Two years ago, in advance of the 2014 midterms and in conjunction with the release of FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, I wrote an article headlined “Is The Polling Industry In Stasis Or In...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2016/
Donald Trump has been anything but a conventional Republican presidential candidate. He has, to take just one example, lashed out against the three previous GOP nominees, Mitt Romney, John McCain...
Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists — FiveThirtyEight included, tw...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
Just a couple of weeks ago, many political analysts were still chattering about a contested Republican convention. Then came the Indiana primary, and the forces opposing Donald Trump seemed to un...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-did-trump-become-unstoppable/
This is our weekly politics newsletter, Conventional Wisdom, covering the wild and wacky world of delegate harvesting Donald Trump’s Republican Party. (Sign up here.) Reader, did you believe th...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/conventional-wisdom-donald-trumps-messy-gop/
There are a lot of mea culpas floating around from people who thought it would snow in July — in Miami — before Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for president. I, to take one exampl...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-four-things-i-learned-from-the-donald-trump-primary/
On March 23, 2015, Ted Cruz officially kicked off the Republican presidential primary by entering the race. “I believe in the power of millions of courageous conservatives rising up to reignite...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-republican-field-dwindled-from-17-to-donald-trump/
Welcome to the FiveThirtyEight elections podcast’s first live show! After Donald Trump emerged as the last Republican contender standing Wednesday, the team threw out the planned script and too...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/live-elections-podcast-donald-trump-steals-the-show/
Ohio Gov. John Kasich just announced that he suspending his campaign for president. That Kasich isn’t going to be president of the United States should shock no one, but that he managed to keep...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-long-weird-kasich-campaign-gives-in-to-reality/