Last night’s debate is set to be the only debate between the gruesome twosome that are Jenrick and Badenoch, so there’s not much opportunity for Jenrick to turn things around. Punters are cle...
I could almost have sympathy for Rachel Reeves. The much hyped October budget approaches and whatever she does she will have the sound of wailing and the gnashing of teeth. It has been her misfor...
Longstanding PBers will know my derision for hypothetical polling, particularly those polls potentially nearly five years away from the next general election but there is something intriguing abo...
In America we get to see almost live postal (aka absentee) vote returns in a way that just isn’t permissible in the UK. Whilst most Americans will vote on November 5th a substantial number of A...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/16/that-way-madness-lies/
Chart from Betdata.io of the next Tory leadership market over the last ten days A few years ago I met somebody from the world of politics and the discussion turned to political betting. They said...
I think there’s some value in backing Harris at these prices as this is still a 50/50 race, we shall find out in twenty one days. TSE
The year 2000 is perhaps best remembered in the UK for the Millenium Dome, the fuel protests and Y2K. For the US, it would be their first presidential election of a new millennium. Incumbent Bill...
Not much movement, and yet lots of movement (for some).The national polling gap continues to narrow slightly, fairly uniformly (we’ll get to Princeton). And yet… Harris’s vote share is actu...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/14/the-state-of-the-union-week-7/
The Times are reporting Up to a dozen Conservative MPs are considering standing down before the next election because of Labour’s imminent clampdown on second jobs. Senior party sources told ...
TSE
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/13/i-agree-with-sir-john-curtice/
I read a truly awful book the other day. JJ Bola’s (apologies if you’re a reader of PB) Mask Off: Masculinity Redefined can be perfectly summed up by a translation of its German title: Don’...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/13/the-politics-of-masculinity/
I would place Alex Salmond in the top five consequential politicians of my lifetime, he transformed Scottish Nationalism from a minor past time to a near majority in Scotland. It is often forgott...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/12/alex-salmond-has-died/
The Independent reports this utterly magnificent operation from Robert Jenrick and his team James Cleverly was eliminated from the Tory leadership race because Robert Jenrick’s team ruthlessl...
I suspect the budget at the end of the month will change the narrative one way or the other for the Starmer government, Rachel Reeves will need to deliver. TSE
Sporting Index have opened their spreads on the White House race. I am a huge fan of spread betting but I realise this isn’t for everybody as you can lose substantially more than your stake but...
Had Rishi Sunak waited for a November election then PB and the media would have been focussing on the fact that it would have been fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won an e...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/10/fifty-years-ago-today/
I am currently under the weather so have not had the time to look at these markets properly but my initial view is that the time value of money makes the first market unattractive. As for the sec...
TSE
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/09/oh-james-cleverly/
The final two are announced at 3.30pm and punters say it won’t be Jenrick. TSE
The voters aren’t enamoured with either major party at the moment. With potentially 57 months until the election only an idiot would predict the outcome of the next general election now, only t...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/09/record-breakers/
Laying the favourite is usually a good strategy (which is a strategy I used with Kemi Badenoch shortly after the general election) thankfully I backed her last week when her price cratered and al...
You could change ‘state’ to ‘stasis’ in the title, and you wouldn’t be far wrong: hardly any movement since last week, which is exactly how I started off last week’s comments. So, wha...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/08/the-state-of-the-union-week-6/
Today sees Tory MPs voting in the third round of the Tory leadership contest and James Cleverly has the momentum, the endorsement of Mel Stride should ensure Tugendhat goes out today and tomorrow...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/08/more-momentum-for-cleverly/
This is quite the turn up, I wasn’t expecting this but it is good news for those who followed my tip on Cleverly to win this at 7s. TSE
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/07/cleverly-becomes-the-favourite/
With Tory MPs voting tomorrow and Wednesday in the leadership election I think a 10% return in two days on Jenrick may appeal to some but I think if Jenrick tries to engineer it that Tugendhat is...
We might soon see a Cleverly/Jenrick crossover. TSE
As a lifelong Conservative the thought of Robert Jenrick leading my party fills me with the same level of dread I experience when my other half asks to use my phone or laptop, not only because of...
Picture: Wikimedia Commons Rosie Duffield’s resignation from Labour raises the prospect of an independent, ex-Labour left-wing grouping in Parliament and perhaps even in elections. Rosie (pictu...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/05/labours-left-wing-problem/
I am a bit surprised by these findings, those people expecting a terrible backlash for Starmer over the Chagos Islands will be shocked as I think more Brits value the Falkands than the Chagos Isl...
I was planning on doing a thread on whether we’d see a crossover on Betfair between James Cleverly and Bobby J Robert Jenrick however that’s not going to happen because in James Cleverly’s ...
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/04/not-very-clever-from-cleverly/
Picture: Merchandise sold by Robert Jenrick and his campaign TSE
This is a very usual thread about why you should never read too much in to unweighted subsamples, this is a universality that applies to polls across the world, from Kentucky to Kirkintilloch and...
After the final four made their speeches today Kemi Badenoch continues her collapse in the betting market whilst James Cleverly has surged. Next week Tory MPs will decide who the final two are an...
I haven’t watched the Veep debate in full but of the clips I have seen neither man had a gaffe and I’d probably make the result a draw but I’d give the win to Vance because he came in with ...
Like Hezbollah it’s not been a great few days for Kemi Badenoch, she keeps on saying things that make her look in a very bad light. Punters have moved away from in this leadership contest today...