US economic activity remains on track to post a softer but still-solid growth rate in next month’s official GDP report for the third quarter. The analysis is based on the median estimate from s...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/gdp-nowcasts-still-indicate-low-recession-risk-for-us-in-q3/
US jobless claims fell last week, dropping to the lowest level since late-May. “The labor market is softening but not imploding as you would expect in a recession. Fed policy is aimed at suppor...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-september-2024/
Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023. A clear warning sign has yet to emerge, based on a set of ETF pairs t...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/mixed-risk-appetite-signals-sharpen-debate-for-markets-outlook/
US government shutdown risk rises as House rejects temporary fund bill. The government needs a stopgap measure to prevent a partial shutdown when new budget year begins Oct. 1. The Federal Reserv...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-september-2024/
The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continue to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks tha...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/defying-recent-recession-warnings-growth-likely-to-prevail-in-q3/
US retail sales rose in August, posting an unexpected increase vs. expectations for a loss. The slight 0.1% monthly advance follows July’s strong 1.0% increase. “The stronger than expected re...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-september-2024/
The beginning of the end for the current run of peak yields looks set to start tomorrow (Wed., Sep. 18) as the Federal Reserve is expected to roll out its first interest rate cut. On the eve of r...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-17-september-2024/
US economy is at an “important turning point,” says the top economic advisor in the White House. “Inflation is now back down close to pre-pandemic levels, and that means the focus needs to ...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-17-september-2024/
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this week. The question is whether the bond market has fully priced in the start of policy easing? It’s tempting to say “yes” after rev...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-market-enjoys-solid-tailwind-ahead-of-fed-meeting/
A busy week of central bank decisions awaits in the days ahead, including the Federal Reserve’s expected announcement of a rate cut on Wed., Sep. 18. Central banks in Brazil, England, Norway an...
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-16-september-2024/